Retirement: The Retirement Spending Smile Is Dead (Here's What the Data Actually Shows)
I used to share Erin's videos more often, but I watched one where the information wasn't 100% accurate, and as far as I can tell it's never been addressed. The video comments were full of people pointing out the problem, so it wasn't just me or some misunderstanding. However, she does produce good content most of the time.
As you approach retirement, the "how much money is enough?" question eventually comes up. It's a math problem with a lot of variables. I'd argue the biggest variable is what you're going to spend in retirement. Forecasting future spending is difficult. A common "rule of thumb" is the future spending smile curve. It's so popular it's part of many retirement modeling applications. You have a good chance of predicting your spending in the early years, and the model helps you understand where those number might go.
Erin explains that the smile spending profile is based on old data, and new data suggests something different.
I thought the best part of this video was her analysis of long-term care late in life. That data is pretty interesting. The YouTube algorithm is feeding me more "you can spend more in retirement" videos these days. One of my counter arguments has been that we don't understand end-of-life care costs, and that lack of understanding causes uncertainty around spending. This video provides some good data on that late-life spending.