Retirement: Is Retiring At 80% Really That Risky? | Why 80% Might Actually Be Better Than 95%

  • 8th Jun 2023
  • 2 min read

If you use a financial planner, or buy some retirement planning software, or are very good with Excel, you're going to come upon the words "Monte Carlo Simulation". That process runs a high number of future scenarios and calculates the odds that your retirement savings will last till your death. To the many data nerds around here, this makes sense, but when the model produces 80% versus 95% confidence, what do you do? This video speaks to this topic. Keep in mind it's opinion/advice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5pqgDu2prI

I had lunch recently with a former Corning WL employee - Jim F. He's recently retired. He left Corning and became a well respected teacher in this area. I had lunch with him because in a previous interaction he and his wife mentioned they had moved from a home to a townhouse and were in the process of moving back to a home. I was interested in this event since retirees do sometimes think about changing housing situations. The short version of the story - be careful when moving into a new construction situation where the HOA is not well formed. In their case, the builder had been subsidizing the HOA by a large amount, so when it was handed over to the property owners their HOA dues more than doubled. A gradual increase in HOA dues is expected, but this was not.